USDA forecasts a significant decrease in grain exports from Ukraine

Grain production and exports in Ukraine in MY 2024/25 will decrease significantly compared to the previous year.

This is stated in the report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

It is noted that the total grain production will decrease by 13%, while exports will decrease by 26%, partly due to the fact that Ukraine has exhausted its grain reserves. At the same time, this season’s ending grain stocks are estimated at 1.8 million tons, which is 19% more than last year, but significantly less than before the large-scale invasion in February 2022.

The largest projected decline is observed in corn, the production of which will decrease by 24% compared to MY 2023-24 (to 24.6 mln tons), while exports will decrease by 33%, to 19.6 mln tons. The ending stocks of the grain are forecasted at 722 thsd tonnes, up slightly from the previous year, but significantly lower than the 2.8 mln tonnes, which were in reserve at the end of the 2022/23 season.

Experts estimate the wheat production at 22.9 mln tonnes, which is almost the same as in the previous season, but its exports will decrease by 19% to 15 mln tonnes.

Barley production and export volumes will remain stable year-on-year at 5.9 mln tonnes and 2.6 mln tonnes respectively.

Tags: Ukraine, export, grain