USDA experts sharply lowered the forecast of global oilseed production in 2024/25, in particular soybean in the US

n forecast was reduced by 3.28 to 121.42 million tons, while analysts had forecast yields at 52.8 bushels/acre and production at 124 million tons.

Compared to the October estimates, the new soybean balance sheet for MY 2024/25 has undergone the following changes:

• Estimated beginning stocks increased by 0.05 to 112.42 million tons (101 million tons in MY 2023/24).
• The forecast for global production was lowered by 3.52 to 425.4 million tons (394.73 million tons in MY 2023/24 and 378.4 million tons in 2022/23 MY), in particular for the US – by 3.28 to 121.42 (113.27) million tons and India – by 0.2 to 12.6 million tons. For Brazil, the forecast was left at 169 million tons, and for Argentina – 51 million tons, which will significantly exceed last year’s figures.
• The forecast for world consumption was reduced by 0.44 to 402.28 (384.18) million tons.
• The estimate of world exports is increased by 0.18 to 181.71 (177.04) million tons, primarily for Canada and Brazil, which offsets the reduction in supplies from the United States by 0.68 to 49.67 (46.13) million tons.
• The forecast for world ending stocks was lowered by 2.9 to 131.7 (112.42) million tons, especially for the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

On the basis of the report, the November soybean futures on the Chicago stock exchange rose sharply, but at the end of Friday’s session rose only 0.1% to 373,6 $/t (+1.2% compared to the data after the release of the October report), as remain under pressure from heavy rains in Brazil and forecasts of reduced soybean imports by China after the victory of trump.

The forecast of world rapeseed production in MY 2024/25 was reduced by 0.2 to 87.24 (89.89) mln tonnes, in particular, for the EU – by 0.1 to 17.35 (19.98) mln tonnes, while for Canada and Australia the estimates were left unchanged at 20 and 5.5 mln tonnes, respectively. The estimate of world ending stocks was left at 8.05 (10.1) million tons.

After the release of the report, February futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF increased by 0.7% to 536.5 €/t or 574.8 $/t (+7.5% for the month), and for canola on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange – by 0.8% to 665.1 CAD/t or 478 $/t (+8.2% for the month).

The forecast for global sunseed production in MY 2024/25 was decreased by 0.25 to 50.44 (56.03) mln tonnes, in particular, for the EU – by 0.07 to 9.43 (10) mln tonnes and Turkey – by 0.175 to 1.375 mln tonnes. The estimates for Argentina – 4 mln tonnes, Russia – 16 mln tonnes and Ukraine – 12.5 (15.5) mln tonnes remained unchanged, although according to the official data, only 9.7 mln tonnes were harvested. The estimate of global sunflower consumption was reduced by 0.1 to 51.2 (56.67) mln tonnes, and ending stocks – by 0.06 to 2.28 (3.16) mln tonnes.

In the near future, the oilseed markets will be influenced by the data on canola harvest in Australia and sunflower in Ukraine and Russia.

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Tags: sunseed, rapeseed, USA, crop forecast, soybean, USDA Report