USDA did not change wheat production forecast for Ukraine
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons (+0.07 million tons compared to last season), according to the USDA report for June.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 214.33 million tons (+1.34 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 262.76 million tons (-2.97 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has not changed – 23 million tons, exports will be at 16.5 million tons, ending stocks unchanged – 1.49 million tons.
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is unchanged – 52.28 million tons. Estimated exports – 22.45 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks – 24.45 million tons (-0.67 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Yield, million tons | Export, million tons | Stocks, million tons |
| Argentina | 20 (0) | 13 (0) | 4,65 (0) |
| Australia | 31 (0) | 25 (0) | 4,32 (0) |
| Canada | 36 (0) | 27 (0) | 4,39 (0) |
| EU | 136,5 (+0,55) | 34,5 (+0,5) | 12,91 (+0,05) |
| Russia | 83 (0) | 45 (0) | 9,39 (-2) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2025/26 at 142 million tons, estimated imports at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.6 million tons (+0.7 million tons).
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