USDA casts doubt on China’s soybean purchase promises

New data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), released Friday, raised doubts about whether China will actually buy millions of bushels of American soybeans, as the Trump administration announced following a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. According to the report, after the summit in South Korea, China made only two purchases of U.S. soybeans totaling 332,000 metric tons, far below the 12 million tons promised by the end of the calendar year.

American farmers had hoped for a resumption of purchases from their largest buyer, but CoBank economist Tanner Ehmke noted that China currently has sufficient soybeans purchased from Brazil and other South American countries, and existing tariffs make U.S. soybeans more expensive than Brazilian beans. Despite Trump’s promises, China has not confirmed any detailed agreement, stating only that a “consensus” was reached to expand agricultural trade.

Soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade fell sharply by 23 cents to $11.24 per bushel, which Ehmke attributed to a “market shock from the lack of Chinese demand.” Prices had previously traded at $10.60, and the decline could continue without new large purchases. Meanwhile, farmers are facing high costs for fertilizer, seed, equipment, and labor, putting additional pressure on their profits.

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, warned that without significant Chinese purchases or government support, thousands of farmers could face income losses. While he remains optimistic that China will follow through on its commitments, the actual situation remains uncertain due to the low volume of sales.

In 2024, China remained the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, but after Trump’s tariffs, it significantly increased purchases from South America. Even before the trade war, Brazilian soybeans accounted for over 70% of China’s imports, while the U.S. share fell to 21%, according to World Bank data.

Experts caution that supplier price increases for the coming year will add further pressure on farmers. Regional budgets for 2026 remain at risk, and many producers expect that the level of Chinese demand will largely determine the profitability of soybean production in the U.S.

Tags: China, soybean, USA