USDA analysts raised wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine
The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 796.8 mln tonnes (-1.4 mln tonnes compared to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for September.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 216.5 million tons (+1.65 million tons). Experts slightly increased the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 257.2 million tons (+0.6 million tons).
The harvest forecast for Ukraine increased by 0.7 million tons to 22.3 million tons, exports – 15 million tons (+1 million tons), ending stocks – 1.09 (+0.4 million tons).
The forecast of wheat harvest in the U.S. remained unchanged at 53.93 mln tonnes, while the export and ending stocks estimates were also unchanged at 22.45 mln tonnes and 22.53 mln tonnes, respectively.
Forecast for major wheat exporters in MY 2024/25:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Ending stocks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 18 (0) | 11,5 (0) | 4,03 (0) |
| Аustralia | 32 (+2) | 25 (+2) | 2,75 (-1,02) |
| Canada | 35 (0) | 26 (+1) | 4,53 (+1,45) |
| EU | 124 (-4) | 31,5 (-2,5) | 9,91 (-0,24) |
| Russia | 83 (0) | 48 (0) | 6,74 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2024/25 at 140 mln tonnes, imports are estimated at 12 mln tonnes, and ending stocks – 134.51 mln tonnes.
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