USDA analysts raised the forecast of Ukrainian wheat harvest and exports
The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 794.08 mln tonnes (-2.8 mln tonnes compared to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for October.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 215.82 million tons (-0.69 million tons). Experts slightly increased the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 257.2 million tons (+0.5 million tons).
The harvest forecast for Ukraine increased by 0.6 million tons to 22.9 million tons, exports – 16 million tons (+1 million tons), ending stocks – 0.99 million tons (-0.1 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in the United States decreased by 0.28 million tons to 53.65 million tons, the export estimate is unchanged at 22.45 million tons, ending stocks will be at 22.09 (-0.44 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 18 (0) | 11,5 (0) | 4,03 (0) |
| Australia | 32 (0) | 25 (0) | 2,75 (0) |
| Canada | 35 (0) | 26 (0) | 4,53 (0) |
| EU | 123 (-1) | 30 (-1,5) | 10,41 (-0,5) |
| Russia | 82 (-1) | 48 (0) | 7,24 (-0,5) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in MY 2024/25 at 140 mln tonnes, the imports estimate – 12 mln tonnes, the ending stocks – 134.51 mln tonnes.
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