USDA analysts raised the forecast of the world wheat crop mainly due to the US
The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 796.1 mln tonnes (+5.44 mln tonnes compared to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for July.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 212.89 million tons (-0.08 million tons). Experts reduced the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 257.2 million tons (+4.97 million tons).
Analysts did not change the forecast for Ukraine: harvest – 19.5 million tons, exports – 13 million tons, ending stocks – 0.96 million tons.
The forecast for the US wheat harvest is 54.66 million tons (+3.64 million tons). Exports will be at 22.45 million tons (+0.68). The ending stocks of wheat in the United States will amount to 23.31 million tons (+2.67 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters in 2024/25 MY:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 18 (+0,5) | 11,5 (0) | 3,75 (+0,5) |
| Australia | 29 (0) | 22 (0) | 3,77 (0) |
| Canada | 35 (+1) | 25 (+0,5) | 3,1 (+0,48) |
| EU | 130 (-0,5) | 34,5 (-0,5) | 10,94 (-0,5) |
| russia | 83 (0) | 48 (0) | 6,74 (-1) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2024/25 MY at 140 mln tonnes, the imports estimate – 12 mln tonnes (+1 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 134.51 mln tonnes (+2 mln tonnes).
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