USDA analysts published the forecast of Ukrainian wheat harvest in the new 2024/25 MY

The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 798.19 mln tonnes (+10.47 mln tonnes compared to 2023/24 MY). This is evidenced by the USDA report for May.
The forecast of world wheat exports is 216 (+0.35 mln tonnes). Experts estimated the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world at 253.61 mln tonnes (-4.19 mln tonnes).
USDA analysts forecast the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2024/25 MY at 21 mln tonnes (-2 mln tonnes). The exports are estimated at 14 mln tonnes (-3.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks are forecast at 1.06 mln tonnes (-0.12 mln tonnes).
The forecast for the US wheat crop remained unchanged at 50.56 million tons (+1.25 million tons). Exports will be at the level of 21.09 million tons (+1.49). The ending stocks of wheat in the United States will amount to 20.85 million tons (+2.14 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for 2024/25 MY:
Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
Argentina | 17 (+1,09) | 11,5 (+2,5) | 2,34 (-1,54) |
Australia | 29 (+3) | 22,5 (+2) | 2,77 (-0,3) |
Canada | 34 (+2,05) | 24,5 (+0,5) | 2,12 (+0,75) |
EU | 132 (-2,15) | 34 (-1) | 14,44 (-2,25) |
Russia | 88 (-3,5) | 52 (-1,5) | 7,99 (-3,45) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2024/25 MY at 140 mln tonnes (3.41 mln tonnes), the imports estimate – 11 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 132.61 mln tonnes (+0.1 mln tonnes).
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