USDA analysts left unchanged estimates of sunseed harvest for Ukraine

The forecast of global sunseed production in 2023/24 MY was decreased by 0.47 to 55.08 (52.29) mln tonnes, in particular, for China – to 1.7 (1.9) mln tonnes. At the same time, the harvest estimates for Ukraine remained unchanged at 14.5 mln tonnes, Russia – 17.1 mln tonnes, Argentina – 4.1 mln tonnes, and the EU – 10.2 mln tonnes. Also reduced the forecast of sunseed exports from Argentina by 50 to 150 thousand tons and Russia – by 100 to 450 thousand tons, for Ukraine the estimate was left at 500 thousand tons, for Turkey the import forecast was reduced by 100 thousand tons.

Also, USDA experts raised the forecast of global rapeseed production in 2023/24 MY by 0.3 to 87.4 (88.82) mln tonnes, especially for India, although the exports estimate was left at 17.1 mln tonnes.

In the February report, the USDA experts slightly lowered the forecasts of world production, consumption and exports of soybeans, although the market expected a more significant reduction in estimates. As a result of adjustments to the beginning stocks, the estimate of ending stocks also exceeded analysts’ forecasts. In general, the soybean balance remains quite saturated compared to the previous season, although the forecasts of the soybean crop in Brazil are worrying.

Compared to the January estimates, the new soybean balance for 2023/24 MY has undergone the following changes:

• Estimate of beginning stocks increased by 1.7 to 103.57 (98.03) million tons due to the increase of stocks in Brazil by 2 million tons after adjusting soybean production in 2022/23 MY by 2 million tons to a record 162 million tons.
• The forecast for world production was reduced by 0.77 to 398.21 (378.06) million tons, in particular for Brazil – by 1 to 156 (162) million tons due to dry and hot weather in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso, although the market expected a decrease in the forecast to 153.2 million tons, and the local agency Conab reduced the estimate by 5.9 to 149.4 million tons. For Argentina, the forecast is still unchanged.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 0.37 to 170.57 (171.96) million tons, in particular for the United States – by 0.95 to 46.8 (54.21) million tons amid strong competition with Brazil and a drop in exports in January. For Brazil, despite the reduced harvest, the export forecast was increased by 0.5 to 100 (95.51) million tons due to significant stocks and active deliveries at the beginning of the year.
• The estimate of world imports was lowered by 0.5 to 167.52 (164.38) million tons, primarily for Southeast Asia, while for China the estimate was left at 102 (100.85) million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was increased by 1.43 to 116.03 (103.57, 99.7 and 100.3) million tons (although analysts expected them to decline to 112.5 million tons), in particular for the United States and Brazil.

According to the report, the March soybean futures on the Chicago stock exchange increased by 0.4% to 438,5 $/t (-3.4% compared to the data after the release of the January report), supported by speculative growth in prices for soybean oil by 2.5%.

Improved weather in South America and active harvesting of soybeans in Brazil puts pressure on the soybean market and neighboring markets of sunflower and rapeseed, which is exacerbated by falling demand for oil from China, where there is a growing economic crisis.

Tags: sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast, Ukraine, soybean, USDA Report