USDA analysts increased the estimate of the harvest and ending stocks of Ukrainian wheat

World wheat production in the 2024/25 season is forecast at 797.23 million tons (+3.44 million tons compared to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the data of the USDA report for March.
The forecast of world wheat exports is 208.07 million tons (-0.92 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 260.08 million tons (+2.52 million tons).
The forecast of the wheat harvest in Ukraine has been increased to 23.4 million tons (+0.5 million tons), the export forecast has remained unchanged – 15.5 million tons. Ending stocks will be at the level of 1.69 million tons (+0.4 million tons).
The forecast for the US wheat harvest is unchanged at 53.65 million tons, the export estimate is 22.73 million tons (-0.4 million tons), and ending stocks are 22.3 million tons (+0.68 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:
Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
Argentina | 18,5 (+0,8) | 11,5 (0) | 4,5 (+0,8) |
Australia | 34,1 (+2,1) | 26 (+1) | 3,22 (+0,61) |
Canada | 34,96 (0) | 26 (0) | 4,59 (0) |
EU | 121,3 (0) | 27 (-1) | 10,59 (0) |
Russia | 81,6 (+0,1) | 45 (-0,5) | 10,34 (+0,6) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2024/25 at 140.1 million tons, imports estimated at 6.5 million tons (-1.5 million tons), and ending stocks at 129.1 million tons (-1.5 million tons).
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