USDA analysts increase forecast of Ukrainian wheat exports in MY 2024/25
The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 792.95 mln tonnes (-1.78 mln tonnes compared to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for December.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213.65 million tons (-1.02 million tons). Experts raised the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 257.88 million tons (+0.31 million tons).
The assessment of the wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine remained unchanged – 22.9 mln tonnes, the export forecast was increased by 0.5 mln tonnes – to 16.5 mln tonnes. Ending stocks will be at 0.79 mln tons (-0.2 mln tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in the United States remained unchanged – 53.65 million tons, exports are estimated at 23.13 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks – 21.63 (-0.54 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 17,5 (0) | 11,5 (0) | 3,53 (0) |
| Australia | 32 (0) | 25 (0) | 2,58 (-0,17) |
| Canada | 34,96 (-0,04) | 26 (0) | 4,53 (0) |
| EU | 121,3 (-1,3) | 29 (-1) | 10,56 (+0,47) |
| Russia | 81,5 (0) | 47 (-1) | 8,24 (+1) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in MY 2024/25 at 140 mln tonnes, the imports estimate – 11 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 133.5 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes).
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