USDA again sharply raised its forecasts for global wheat production and ending stocks for the MY 2025/26

In the January supply and demand balance, experts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) again, as in the December report, increased forecasts for global wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks in the MY 2025/26, which increases pressure on stock quotes, and closer to spring will also affect the physical market.

Compared to December estimates, the world wheat balance for the MY 2025/26 has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for world wheat production has been increased by 4.36 million tons to a record 842.17 million tons (800.81 million tons in MY 2024/25), in particular for Argentina – by 3.5 million tons to 27.5 (18.51) million tons, Russia – by 2 to 89.5 (81.6) million tons. The forecast for Ukraine and the USA has been left unchanged. The forecast for world wheat production in the last four reports has been increased by 35.57 million tons (in September – by 9.3 million tons, in November – by 12.89 million tons, in December – by 8.92 million tons, in January – by 4.36 million tons).
• The forecast for global wheat consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 823.91 (810.86) million tons due to increased consumption for feed.
• The forecast for world exports has been increased by 1 million tons to 219.76 (210.1) million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 1.5 million tons to 16 (13) million tons, which compensates for the reduction in exports from Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 14 (15.75) million tons and from the EU by 0.5 million tons to 32.5 (27.9) million tons due to low shipment rates and increased competition in the second half of the season.
• The forecast for world imports has been increased by 1.15 million tons to 215.54 (200.3) million tons.
• The forecast for ending stocks has been increased by 3.5 million tonnes to 278.3 (260) million tonnes, mainly due to an increase in stocks in Argentina and the Russian Federation by 1.5 million tonnes and in the EU and the USA by 0.5 million tonnes.

The WASDE report was accompanied by quarterly U.S. grain inventories and 2026/27 winter wheat plantings. U.S. winter wheat plantings were at last year’s level, although analysts had expected a decline, which would put pressure on new crop prices.

Also, the USDA, in its quarterly report on grain stocks as of December 1, showed that wheat stocks amounted to 45.59 million tons, which exceeds the average estimate of analysts – 44.5 million tons and is 2.9 million tons higher than the corresponding figure last year.

March wheat futures fell after bearish reports yesterday:

• by 1.2% to $187.9/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.8% after the release of the December report);
• by 0.7% to $193.2/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1%);
• by 0.3% to $208.2/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.8%);
• by 1.3% to €189.25/t or $220.7/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris (-0.5%).

In total, in the month that passed after the release of the December report, quotes lost 0.5-4.8%.

Tags: prices, wheat, crop forecast