US wheat prices fell another 0.6-2.4% and are trading at a 5-year low

USDA and IGC experts in their September reports increased forecasts for world wheat production in MY 2025/25 to a record 816.2 and 819 million tons, respectively (800.9 million tons in MY 2024/25), which increased the pressure on quotes. But yesterday’s decision by Argentina to remove export duties caused soft wheat quotes in Chicago to fall by 2.4% to a 5-year low.

Argentine authorities yesterday lifted all export duties on grain until October 31 to boost foreign exchange earnings amid a new wave of economic crisis. This could create additional grain supply on the world market, which has sent prices plummeting.

Wheat stock quotes lost another 1-2.7% during the week, and yesterday December futures fell:

• by 2.4% to $187.7/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.7% per week),
• by 1% to $184.6/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-2.4%),
• by 0.6% to $207.2/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.4%),
• by 0.9% to €189/t or $223/t – wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange (-1%).

According to Rusagrotrans, during the week, prices for Russian wheat remained at $227/t FOB due to increased demand from Iran and Egypt, while prices for French wheat increased by $7/t to $232/t, Romanian wheat by $2/t to $233/t, and American wheat by $3/t to $229/t FOB, and prices for Argentine wheat decreased by $3/t to $226/t and Ukrainian wheat by $2/t to $223/t FOB.

In Ukraine, amid active harvesting of late crops, the supply of wheat has sharply decreased. Therefore, traders who need to form export consignments are keeping their purchase prices at high levels, although others have slightly reduced prices.

During the week, export demand prices for food wheat remained at the level of 10,000–10,300 UAH/t or 214–219 $/t, and for feed wheat – 9,500–9,700 UAH/t or 204–207 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the MY 2025/26, Ukraine exported 3.87 million tons of wheat, which is 36% lower than the corresponding figure last year (5.27 million tons) and is 26% of the export forecast for the season. At the same time, Russia exported only 6.2 million tons of wheat, or 14% of the forecasted 45 million tons.

Wheat exports from the US in the MY 2025/26 reached 8.711 million tons, which is 12.7% higher than last year’s pace and is 36% of the forecast for the entire season, thanks to active demand for cheap American wheat.

The lack of productive precipitation in the east and south of Ukraine and in the south-west of Russia does not contribute to the sowing of winter wheat and obtaining seedlings, which keeps prices from falling further.