US wheat export momentum fades ahead of new crop season

Global wheat markets are returning to more normalized trade flows, while large global supplies are weighing on US export prospects. Despite lower year-on-year production, demand for US wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to weaken significantly, keeping pressure on domestic prices. This was stated by Matt Murphy, Vice President of Global Wheat at The Andersons, during the spring conference of the North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) in Florida.

According to Murphy, the strong start to US exports in the current season was driven by temporary factors, including weather disruptions in Russia and the Baltic region, as well as competitive pricing early in the marketing year. These conditions allowed US wheat to capture market share despite rising global production among major exporters.

However, this advantage is now fading. Export momentum is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the season and decline further in 2026/27 as competing suppliers return to the market and global stocks rise to around 95 million tonnes. This will limit the ability of the US to expand its share in global trade.

Another important factor is the growing role of politically driven trade flows, where purchasing decisions are influenced less by price and more by bilateral agreements. Countries such as Bangladesh have increased imports of US wheat through such arrangements, while Indonesia and Israel are also considering expanding purchases despite higher costs.

At the same time, wheat acreage in North America is expected to decline. In the US, planted area could fall by about 1.9 million acres in 2026, leading to lower production and increasing the market’s sensitivity to weather risks, particularly during the key spring growing period for winter wheat.

China remains a major uncertainty for the global market. If its domestic production falls short, the country could return as a large-scale importer, increasing price volatility. In the longer term, Murphy noted that without policy support, US wheat acreage may continue to decline as farmers shift to more profitable crops such as corn and soybeans.

Tags: export, wheat, USA