US soybeans production to fall in next marketing year

USDA expects soybean acreage to decline in MY 2025/26, driven by more favorable conditions for corn and growing competition from Brazilian soybeans.

Aaron Aytes, USDA senior feed grains analyst, said Feb. 28 at the USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum for 2025 that the U.S. market is currently leaning more toward corn, which can be seen in the correlation of futures prices for both commodities.

“If the correlation of those prices is below 2.3, we take that as a signal that the market is demanding or calling for more corn,” he said. “If it’s above 2.3, they’re calling for more soybeans.”

“So if you look at the monthly averages of those prices since September, that ratio has started to fall below 2.3, which is a signal to us that the market may be calling for more corn and less soybeans.”

Initial data presented by USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer on Feb. 27 during the same event showed soybean acreage in 2025-26 declining by 3.1 million acres to 84 million. On the other hand, corn acreage is projected at 94.0 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million.

U.S. farmers face increasing competition from Brazilian soybeans.

The country supplies 60% of the beans imported by China, the world’s largest soybean importer, Luiz Garcia da Silva, president of Brazil’s Portos do Parana port authority, told the forum, according to S&P Global Platts.

“Brazil will harvest a crop in 2025 that is expected to be 1.8 billion bushels larger or more than 40 percent above the U.S. crop in 2024,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Feb. 27 grain and oilseed forecast.

“The U.S. was once the largest producer among major exporters, but ceded its title to Brazil about seven or eight years ago,” Ates said. “Going forward, I think it will be interesting to see what the final size of the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops will be, as they have the potential to influence planning decisions here in the U.S. through price reactions.”

S&P Commodity Insights’ latest projections put Brazil’s current crop at 173 million tons, while Brazilian agricultural agency Conab expects 166 million tons.

“The main obstacle for the U.S. in meeting its soybean targets is South American soybean production, which is up 20 million tons year-over-year,” the Commodity Insights analyst said. “And the spread of corn and soybeans heavily favors corn (in the U.S.).”

USDA forecasts U.S. soybean exports for the next marketing year at 1.86 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from the 2024/25 forecast.

U.S. soybean processing is expected to increase by 65 million bushels to 2.48 billion, and soybean yields are projected to increase by 1.8 bushels per acre to 52.5 bushels in 2025-2026.

Tags: soybean, USA, crop forecast