US soybeans are gradually replaces Ukrainian supplies in Egypt

During September-December 2025, Ukraine reduced soybean supplies to Egypt by 6 times compared to the corresponding period in 2024, from 246 to 38 thousand tons, which is 12 thousand tons less than the similar indicator of the MY 2023/24, although Egypt is one of the three main sales markets (along with the EU and Turkey) for Ukrainian soybeans.

The decrease in supplies is due to a reduced harvest and export duty, but experts emphasize that for the second season in a row, American soybeans are displacing Ukrainian soybeans from the Egyptian market.

If in the MY 2023/24 the US share in soybean imports to Egypt was 41%, and Ukraine – 33%, then in the MY 2024/25 the US share increased to 76%, and Ukraine decreased to 15%. In one season, Egypt went from diversified supplies to almost complete dependence on soybeans from the US.

The trend is confirmed by USDA data, according to which 1.4 million tons of soybeans were shipped to Egypt during January-December 2024, and 2 million tons during the same period in 2025, which provides more than 40% of Egypt’s projected imports for the MY 2025/26 (4.9 million tons). If the same pace continues, the US share in Egyptian imports will be 80%.

Against this background, demand for Ukrainian soybeans from Egyptian buyers is almost non-existent, especially since they are willing to pay $474-475/t CIF, while Ukrainian exporters offer soybeans at $486-487/t CIF for delivery in February.

To compete with American soybeans, Ukrainian soybeans must be $15/ton cheaper than they are now, say Egyptian and Turkish buyers.

Until recently, Egypt was a strategic market for Ukrainian soybeans. In the MY 2023/24, Ukraine supplied 1 million tons of soybeans there (46% of total exports), in the MY 2024/25 – 710 thousand tons (27%), while in the MY 2025/26, exports in this direction, according to experts, will amount to several hundred thousand tons.

Recall that by increasing soybean imports from the United States, Egypt reduced supplies of soybeans and meal from Ukraine and Brazil from mid-2025.

Tags: Ukraine, Egypt, soybean