US soybean prices hit a 15-month high amid hopes for a trade deal with China

On Tuesday, Chicago soybean futures hit their highest level in 15 months, briefly exceeding $11 per bushel, amid optimism that the US will be able to reach a trade agreement with China, as leaders of both countries are expected to meet in South Korea on Thursday.

Corn and wheat followed soybeans higher, though all three markets closed below their session highs due to pressure from profit-taking and farmer selling as producers locked in prices.

Soybean export prospects remained a focus of grain markets. Trump said on Monday that the US and China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, are ready to reach a trade agreement, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC on Sunday that China would make “substantial” soybean purchases under the proposed framework.

“It’s all about the optimism that permeated Thursday’s meeting, with hopes that, quote, ‘significant’ soybean purchases would be announced,” said Hightower Report analyst Randy Place, adding that the rise in soybean prices had attracted technical buying.

Given expectations, Place said, futures could decline without any purchase commitments. “There’s a risk we could slide back,” he said.

According to the MARS crop monitoring service, winter crop planting was proceeding well across much of the European Union on Monday, although some parts of southeastern Europe were experiencing delays due to adverse weather conditions.

Traders said benchmark rates for soybeans shipped by barge to terminals on the US Gulf Coast rose on Tuesday, as exporter demand for soybean barges accelerated this week in anticipation of a possible resumption of soybean purchases from China. Low farm sales and exports lagging behind this season are currently constraining supplies.

On Tuesday, Chinese importers inquired about prices for supplies from the Gulf Coast and the Pacific Northwest, but traders were unable to confirm that any sales had been completed.

Traders said the sharp decline in Brazilian soybean export prices over the past week could limit demand for U.S. supplies. Brazil, the largest exporter, still has soybeans from last year’s harvest on hand.

On Tuesday morning, CIF Gulf soybean barge futures for October delivery traded at 96 cents versus November futures on the CBOT, rising to 93 cents versus futures in the afternoon, up from 87 cents the previous day. November barge prices jumped 6 cents to 94 cents versus futures.

FOB soybean export premiums for November delivery rose 5 cents to 105 cents versus futures, while December offers rose 7 cents to 97 cents versus January CBOT futures.

November CBOT soybean futures closed 11 cents higher at $10.78-1/4 per bushel.

December soybean meal futures on the CBOT rose $8.30 to $306.50 per short ton, while December soybean oil futures (BOZ25) fell 0.51 cent to 50.26 cents per pound.

Brazil’s October soybean exports totaled 7 million tonnes, up from 7.34 million tonnes the week before, according to Anec data released Tuesday.

Nov 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.78 1/4, up 11 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $10.10 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents,

Jan 26 Soybeans  closed at $10.95 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents,

Mar 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.06 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents

Tags: prices, soybean