US Soybean Meal Shipments to Philippines to Increase in Next 5 Years

The Philippines will offer to buy more U.S. agricultural products as it seeks to reduce the 17% tariff rate imposed on goods from the Southeast Asian country, according to Trade Secretary Cristina Roque.

Roque said she plans to meet with U.S. trade officials during a trip to the U.S. from April 29 to May 2 with Frederick Go, special assistant for investment and economic affairs to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

“We will try to import more, like soybeans, frozen meat, agricultural products (in) larger volumes,” Roque told reporters on Friday. Any planned increase in U.S. purchases must be balanced against supply and demand in the local agricultural sector, she added.

The U.S. tax on Philippine goods is much lower compared to Asian neighbors including Vietnam and Thailand. While the Philippines is less reliant on global trade than many other countries, officials there, like their regional counterparts, are seeking to negotiate with the Trump administration to reduce them during the ongoing 90-day pause.

US soybean meal shipments to the Philippines are expected to increase over the next five years as demand for the feed ingredient remains strong despite the threat of animal diseases such as African swine fever (ASF).

The US Soybean Export Council (USSEC) has expressed confidence that the Philippines will continue to be a major market for soybean meal, a key animal feed ingredient due to its high protein content.

“In terms of soybean meal exports [to the Philippines] over the five-year period, I think we have the potential to grow at an average of 5 to 8 percent per year in terms of volume,” Timothy Lo, USSEC’s regional director for Southeast Asia, told the BusinessMirror on the sidelines of a recent food summit in Pasay City.

“That’s consistent with the growth in production and consumption of poultry, pork, and all those types of products that use soybeans,” Jim Sutter, CEO of USSEC, told this newspaper.

USDA data showed that the United States exported 2.6 million metric tons (MMT) of soybean meal to the Philippines in the 2023/24 marketing year, which ended Sept. 30, 2024. That’s up from 2.14 million MMT recorded the previous year.

However, Loh noted that the Philippines’ pork sector is currently battling African swine fever (ASF), which has reduced hog production since its discovery in 2019.

Despite this, he said his group remains “positive” about the recovery of the sector, citing government efforts to restore the population, including a proposal to expand ASF vaccination for hog farmers, which is still in the controlled trial stage.

“Once this issue is resolved and people start seeing the desired results, we should see a significant recovery in the hog sector in the Philippines,” Lo said, stressing the need to build confidence among hog farmers to accept the vaccine.

“If we restore the hog population and go back to pre-ASF times, we will definitely see a big increase in U.S. soybean meal imports to the market.”

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that pork production fell 5 percent to 1.7 million tons last year, down from 1.79 million tons the previous year.

Tariff War

Meanwhile, USSEC spokesman Benito Oliveros said the Philippines could benefit from China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, as it could drive down soybean meal prices.

He noted that the U.S. would have to look elsewhere if retaliatory tariffs were imposed. The East Asian country is the world’s leading soybean importer.

“China gets 70 percent of its soybeans from Brazil. With Brazil prioritizing China, the U.S. will enter the markets that Brazil has left behind,” Oliveros said.

“Brazil has a lot of production as well, so the U.S. will actually offer [soybean meal] at a lower price.”

Sutter said soybean meal is currently cheaper due to record crops in the U.S. and Brazil, the world’s leading soybean producers.

“As long as there’s this uncertainty in the market and people are wondering about tariffs and trade, it’s not very positive for prices. So prices could go lower [if tariffs are imposed].”

World Bank data showed that global soybean meal quotations fell 21.66 percent to $358 per metric ton (MT) in February from $457 per MT a year earlier. The latest figure is also below the average price of $442 per MT in 2024.

The local retail price of soybean meal is currently around P27-28 per kilogram, down from P30 per kilogram last year, Oliveros said.

Tags: Philippines, soybean meal, USA