US. Oil-type sunflower acres drop almost 50%

Area planted to sunflower in 2024 decreased 46% from 2023 and totals 715,200 acres, according to the initial USDA Farm Service Agency crop acreage report. The planted area of oil-type varieties, at 593,930 acres, is down 49% from 2023.

Planted acreage of non-oil varieties, estimated at 121,200 acres, is down 21% from last year. 2024 U.S. sunflower production is still undetermined and will not be known until later this year. Most of the sunflower crop has been rated in the good-to-excellent categories throughout the growing season.

This should mean that yields will be above trend, assuming normal weather through the rest of this fall. Initial estimates of total oil and non-oil sunflower production are in a range of 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion pounds, which is about 38% lower than last year’s crop.

USDA will release its final acreage and production estimates in January.

Looking ahead

Harvest of the U.S. sunflower crop has just gotten started as of this writing in mid-September. Initial yield reports are positive, and quality is generally very good.

Depending on the size of the 2024 crop, seed prices could drift lower as harvest deliveries arrive at plants and farmers pick up the selling pace in the next couple of months. After the initial harvest delivery period, prices will follow demand news.

The market also continues to watch developments in the Black Sea region. Extreme drought conditions have impacted sunflower production. Analyst firm Oil World recently lowered its production estimates for Russia to 17.1 million metric tons and for Ukraine to 13.4 MMT.

This is a significant drop off from last year’s production of 18.4 MMT in Russia and 14.9 MMT in Ukraine. Oil World also lowered production prospects in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. The situation bears watching as Russia and Ukraine are the largest exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets, and prices will be responsive to potential production shortfalls.

Harvesttime up North

With harvest in progress in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is beginning to look at 2025 production prospects in the Southern Hemisphere. Farmers in Brazil and Argentina are talking about an increase in 2025 soybean acres. If realized, this could put pressure on U.S. new-crop oilseed prices this fall into winter.

U.S. producers are also looking at crop options for 2025, and crush plants are expected to be out early offering new-crop high-oleic contracts that have cash or Act of God production clauses. They will want to regain the acreage lost this year, so new-crop sunflower prices are expected to be competitive in relation to other crops.

Something else to keep in mind is oil premiums that are paid on sunflowers. Oil premiums are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of a 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. For example, 45% oil content results in a 10% price premium, which pushes gross returns from oil sunflowers even higher.

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Tags: sunseed, USA