US grain exports remain strong on competitive pricing

US grain exports thus far in 2024-25 were strong despite declining totals to China, according to the most recent Grain Transportation Report (GTR) from the US Department of Agriculture.

The strong exports raised the demand for grain transportation and accelerated the pace of US grain shipments, according to the report.

Year-to-date shipments as of April 3 were up 18% compared to the same period last year and outstanding sales were up 20%.

Although China has reduced corn purchases, US corn exports have been fortified by prices that are more competitive than all other major exporting countries, the GTR said. Low exportable supplies of major exporters and strong demand also are helping US exports.

US corn exports are estimated at 64.8 million tonnes, which would be the largest volume since 2021-22. As of April 3, total commitments were up 25% from the previous year and the unshipped volume was up 19%.

The three largest buyers were Mexico (34%), Japan (19%) and Colombia (12%). Mexico continues to be a strong buyer due to two consecutive years of drought and Colombia’s imports have increased as domestic production has dropped.

While China was among the top five importers from 2021-22 to 2023-24, exports this year are virtually non-existent, the GTR said.

US corn is expected to remain very competitive until June when Brazil’s second crop of Safrina corn comes on the market, it said.

Total US soybean commitments and accumulated exports were up 14% and 12%, respectively, from the same time in 2023-24. As of April 3, 84% of US projected soybean exports already had shipped — up from 81% for the same period last year. Outstanding US soybean export sales were up 30% from the same time in 2023-24.

Total commitments for US wheat were up 13% compared to the same period last year and accumulated exports were also up 13%, the GTR said.

“This rise was mainly because of purchases by Mexico and (South) Korea — up 24% and 76%, respectively, from last year,” it said.

However, China’s wheat purchases fell sharply — down 94% from the same time last year. Still, China’s substantially reduced purchases were not enough to erase the gains in US exports to other countries.

As of April 3, US wheat inspections were up 19%. With eight weeks left in wheat’s marketing year, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projected 77% of wheat exports had shipped, 2% below the same time last year.

Higher corn and wheat exports have raised demand for barge transportation, the GTR said.

Barge movements through the Mississippi River locks rose 16% for corn from Sept. 7, 2024, to this April 5. For wheat, barge movements were also up 16% for a period from June 1, 2024, to this April 5. Soybean barge movements were down 5%.

“The decline may owe to multiple factors, including reduced soybean exports to China, uncertainty regarding US trade policies, and available soybean inventories at grain elevators,” the GTR said.

Rising wheat exports to Mexico also raised the demand for rail transportation. From June 1, 2024, to this April 3, inspections of wheat to Mexico by rail were up 21% from the previous year (GTR fig. 4). Inspection of soybeans to Mexico by rail were down 2% from the previous year, reflecting lower sales to Mexico.

Tags: export, grain, USA