US grain and oilseed exports rise in 2024 without support from China

Most of the world’s importers last year took advantage of abundant and cheap supplies of U.S. agricultural commodities, buying large bulk quantities of soybeans and corn. But China was somewhat left out of the frenzy, Reuters analysts noted.

Meanwhile, average export prices have fallen by more than one-fifth since 2023. According to the U.S. Bureau of Statistics, the decline in value resulted in the commodity group generating 5% less revenue than a year earlier, but in physical terms, shipments were up 22% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase in a decade.

Shipments by tonnage to Mexico, ranked No. 2, and Colombia, ranked No. 4, broke records, rising 29% and 20% above previous highs, respectively. Exports to No. 3 Japan and No. 5 South Korea rose 43% and 107% year-over-year, respectively, reaching six- and three-year highs. These four countries accounted for 44% of total exports of AIC goods.

China was narrowly the largest destination for massive U.S. exports last year, purchasing 24% of total exports, though it was down 5% from the previous year. That marked a five-year low in the trade balance given the period of trade wars. However, the greater participation of other importers is a positive sign, especially given concerns among industry participants that some markets may be weaning off U.S. agriculture, especially Asian destinations, the publication’s analysts said.

In value terms, U.S. agricultural and related exports in 2024 totaled $191 billion, up slightly from 2023. This is the third highest ever in nominal terms, but below the 2022 high of $213 billion. Canada, which along with China and Mexico are among the top three markets for U.S. agricultural products, was the top destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2024. These three countries accounted for $91 billion or 48% of agricultural exports and this percentage is consistent with the previous three years.Although wholesale commodity prices declined in 2024, export prices for other leading agricultural commodities increased and generated more revenue than a year earlier. Prices for beef, pork, nuts, and dairy products rose over the year, accounting for $37 billion of exports and about 19% of the total. These four commodities were among the top seven agricultural exports, along with corn, soybeans and forest products.

In addition to Mexico and Colombia, U.S. agricultural exports reached at least decade highs last year to the United Kingdom, India, the Dominican Republic and Guatemala. While the size of these markets pales in comparison to China’s, it never hurts to maintain and expand them, especially when trade with larger partners is in question.

Earlier, it was reported that China’s share of soybean imports to China from the U.S. fell from 40% to 18%, while Brazil’s share rose from 46% to 74%.

Tags: grain, Brazil, soybean, wheat, USA, China, corn