US corn, thanks to its low price, has completely displaced Ukrainian corn from the international market

Export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine continue to fall amid low demand and falling wheat prices, as well as low prices for American corn.

Purchase prices for feed wheat in Ukrainian ports have fallen to $210-214/t, but corn prices remain at $225-228/t as some traders need to close deliveries by the end of May or early June. Large international trading companies have almost stopped purchases in anticipation of new export sales of Ukrainian corn, which are hindered by low corn prices from the US and South America.

US corn exports rose 32.2% to 1.72 million tonnes from May 8-15 compared to the previous week (566,000 tonnes were shipped to Mexico), as buyers try to close deliveries before the end of the 90-day delay in the imposition of US tariffs. In the MY 2024/25, the US exported 45.543 million tonnes of corn, which is 29.2% higher than last year’s pace. But to reach the USDA’s forecast of 66 million tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes must be shipped each week until the end of the season, which will be difficult to do, as buyers will start importing cheap corn from Argentina and Brazil starting in July.

July corn futures in Chicago started the week up 0.9% to $176.2/t, and December futures up 1.4% to $173.9/t on strong export demand as US corn remains the cheapest on the world market.

According to Crop Progress, as of May 18, 78% of the planned area has been sown with corn in the US (67% a year ago and 73% on average for the 5 years to this date), and seedlings have been obtained on 50% of the area (40% on average).

Corn exports from Ukraine for the 19 days of May amounted to 1.26 million tons (2.36 million tons for the same period last year), and in total for the season reached 19.8 million tons (25.26 million tons by this date in the MY 2023/24), so by July 1 it may reach the USDA forecast of 22 million tons.

As of May 16, 3.5 million hectares, or 87% of the planned 4 million hectares ( 3.6 million hectares on this date last year), have already been sown with corn in Ukraine, and thanks to heavy rainfall and high prices, the sowing area will exceed the planned one.

Forecasts of increased sowing areas in Ukraine and favorable conditions for germination in early June will reduce corn prices in Ukraine to the level of $215-220/t delivered to the port, given the price of $244-246/t in recent international tenders (delivered to buyers in Asia in July-August).