US corn planting seen down, soybean acres up as Iran war drives up costs

The war involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran is already reshaping U.S. farmers’ planting decisions for the 2026 season. Analysts say surging fertilizer and fuel costs, combined with weak grain prices, are forcing growers to reconsider crop choices ahead of the USDA’s official acreage report.

Market expectations suggest corn plantings could fall to around 94.4 million acres, down from nearly 98.8 million acres in 2025. At the same time, soybean acreage is projected to rise to about 85.5 million acres, as soybeans require less nitrogen fertilizer and are more cost-efficient under current input price pressures.

The main driver behind this shift is the sharp increase in fertilizer prices, particularly nitrogen-based products. Urea prices have climbed about 40% since the start of the conflict, while ammonia costs are up nearly 20%, significantly raising production expenses for corn and wheat farmers. Producers say fertilizer costs are now a more decisive factor than crop prices in planting decisions.

Uncertainty in global trade is adding further pressure, especially regarding relations between the United States and China, the largest importer of U.S. soybeans. This uncertainty is pushing farmers to balance potential export demand against geopolitical and trade risks, complicating spring planting strategies.

Crops that are highly dependent on nitrogen inputs are the most affected, particularly corn and wheat. Analysts expect spring wheat acreage to fall to its lowest level since 1970, as rising input costs and weak grain prices reduce profitability across the sector.

U.S. farmers are also facing a prolonged period of tight margins, with the agricultural sector experiencing its fourth consecutive year of high production costs and low profitability. Despite government support packages worth around $12 billion, many producers remain under financial strain heading into the planting season.

Experts say the situation reflects a broader global trend: geopolitical conflicts and energy shocks are increasingly translating into food system disruptions. Changes in U.S. planting patterns could have ripple effects on global grain, feed, and food prices through 2026 and into 2027.

Tags: corn, soybean, USA, sown area