US corn market in 2026 will remain under pressure from record supply

The U.S. corn market in 2026 is likely to largely repeat the dynamics of last year, with high production volumes continuing to weigh on prices. This view was expressed by University of Missouri Extension agricultural economist Ben Brown, who warns that without a significant change in production conditions, farmers should not expect a strong price recovery.

In 2025, U.S. corn production reached a record 18.3 billion bushels, with average yields estimated by the USDA at around 186 bushels per acre. Such high output was supported by expanded acreage, which totaled about 99 million acres. For 2026, Brown expects planted area to decline to roughly 95 million acres, though overall supply will remain ample.

According to Brown, large inventories will keep corn prices under pressure, and any upward movement will likely depend on weather-related yield losses. “Margins aren’t as bad for 2026, but they’re not great,” he said, noting that the market remains vulnerable to oversupply.

Speaking at the 2025 MU Crop Management Conference, Brown highlighted three key factors shaping the corn outlook: supply levels, weather conditions, and ethanol demand. Current stocks are large enough to limit sustained price rallies unless there is unexpected deterioration in production, particularly in South America.

Export performance has been one of the brighter spots. Of the 18.3 billion bushels harvested, nearly 750 million bushels were exported in the first 13 weeks of the marketing year — a record pace. Notably, these shipments were achieved without exports to China, with Mexico accounting for a significant share of demand.

Ethanol continues to play a critical role in supporting corn demand. U.S. corn-based ethanol exports have remained strong, reaching markets such as Europe, Canada and India. Brown noted that expanding biofuel policies worldwide have helped create a stable demand base, even as global corn production remains competitive due to increased output from South America and the Black Sea region.

Tags: corn, USA