US Beef Prices Reach Record High

The cattle herd has fallen 13 percent since 2019, and the total cattle herd is at its lowest level since 1952.

Tom Winter opened his burger truck in Missoula, Montana, nearly two years ago, focusing on selling locally grown food at an affordable price to locals.

As the business — Gary’s Local Burgers — expanded to three locations, Winter kept the price of his burgers at $6, a figure he posted on large signs.

But last month, the company printed new signs with a new price: $6.95.

The average price of ground beef hit a record high of $5.98 per pound in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That price is up 16.2 percent from a year earlier. Other types of ground beef, such as chuck and chuck steaks, also hit record highs in the first half of 2025.

While Winter buys beef and sells burgers locally, he hasn’t been able to escape the market, which has become more expensive to operate. Prices have risen because the number of cattle suitable for beef production is at its lowest since the 1950s.

The U.S. beef cattle herd is at 27.9 million, down 13% from 2019, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The total cattle population is at its lowest since 1952. Consumer demand has been stable in recent years.

“I made a personal commitment that we would keep the price at $6, but I had to backtrack and raise it 95 cents,” Winter said of his burgers, adding, “We just didn’t understand how prices could do that.”

Most cattle ranchers are small businesses and don’t have the capital to make big investments or to weather price fluctuations. The average cattle herd is 47 head, according to 2022 USDA data. Large cattle ranches (100 or more head) account for 10.5 percent of all beef production operations.

The decline in cattle herds is the result of a decade-long cycle in the livestock industry that includes drought, processing plant closures, and changing consumer preferences.

Ranchers made big profits in 2014 and increased their herds over the next five to six years, according to Ted Schroeder, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University.

But as supply increased, cattle prices dropped for ranchers just as drought hit the Western United States. With less grass for cattle to graze, ranchers had to buy more feed to feed their herds, driving up costs. As the drought continued, many ranchers decided to sell some of their cattle and reduce their herds.

Meatpacking plant closures left processors with fewer cattle to feed, driving down prices for ranchers. The disruptions caused by the pandemic in 2020 slowed the meatpacking industry and drove up costs.

Now, ranchers are starting to rebuild their herds to take advantage of the higher prices. But it’s a slow process — it takes two to three years to raise a calf for slaughter — so beef prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that cattle prices will remain high through 2026, and retail beef prices for several more years.

Big-buying beef companies have responded in varying ways. McDonald’s, Sysco, and other cattle companies and groups have sued major meatpackers, alleging that they colluded to raise prices. The processors deny the allegations, but have settled some lawsuits for tens of millions of dollars without admitting guilt.

Supermarkets like Costco and Walmart are increasingly involved throughout the meat supply chain. Walmart has invested in a slaughterhouse in Nebraska and opened its first meatpacking plant in Olathe, Kansas, on Monday. A Walmart spokeswoman said the new plant will help ensure a steady supply of beef for the company’s stores.

However, what’s a pain for shoppers in line at the supermarket is a benefit to cattle producers, as some are thriving after years of stagnation. “Cattle has been doing really well lately,” said Blake Albers, founder of Albers Craft Meats in Norfolk, Neb.

The Albers family owns a large cattle feedlot (a feedlot) and a small plant that flavors, cuts, and packages beef, which they sell in their store and online. Albers said his store still attracts loyal customers, but has had to make some changes to keep them despite rising prices.

He said some customers prefer smaller portions to save money, adding that it’s difficult to offer a smaller steak that’s still thick and attractive. The butcher has increased the size of some cuts, like the ribeye, so customers can cut it into bite-size portions at home for multiple meals.

Albers said he also sells 10 pounds of individually wrapped premium beef at a discount, figuring he’ll charge a smaller markup for larger orders. And if a customer buys a lot of steaks, he’ll add ground beef for a lower price.

“The price for premium ground beef should be $7, but we can get to $5.09 and $5.99 if we include it with the animal,” he said.

Despite the rise in beef prices, consumer incomes have increased slightly, meaning some people can afford to spend more on burgers.

But not everyone can afford it, and that’s keeping Winter, the owner of Gary’s Local Burger, a little awake at night. He said his prices are on par with McDonald’s, adding that in a city where the cost of living is rising, he’s pleased to see residents eating Montana beef straight from his trucks.

That’s why it’s been tough to raise prices. “A lot of my employees have made fun of me and said, ’95 cents, man, what’s the big deal?'” he said. “But that’s not the direction I wanted to go.”

Tags: prices, Beef cattle, USA