Uruguay’s corn production set for record high

Uruguay is poised for a record corn harvest of 1.8 million tonnes in the 2025–2026 agricultural season, while wheat production is expected to decline due to a significant rebound in canola cultivation. According to an April report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), canola offers 70–80% higher returns than wheat and 50–60% higher than barley, leading to an increase in canola acreage by 80,000–100,000 hectares. Conversely, wheat planting is projected to drop by 300,000 hectares, or nearly 17%, compared to the previous year.

Corn production will benefit from better returns than soybeans and a recovery in planted areas following severe damage from corn stunt disease, caused by the Spiroplasma kunkelii phytoplasma and spread by leafhoppers (Dalbulus maidis). Early weather forecasts suggest the absence of the dry La Niña conditions that affected the past three seasons, boosting corn yields. Domestic corn consumption is expected to reach a record 1.55 million tonnes, driven by a thriving livestock sector, particularly for beef cattle finishing and live calf exports, as well as growth in the dairy and poultry industries. Corn exports will remain steady at 200,000 tonnes, targeting markets in Chile, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

Wheat production is forecast at 1.2 million tonnes in 2025–2026, down from 1.5 million tonnes in the prior season due to reduced planting areas. Despite this, improved seed varieties, advanced technology, and better crop management have enhanced wheat yields and quality, opening new export markets. Domestic wheat consumption is stable at around 500,000 tonnes, with 450,000 tonnes used for milling and seed. Wheat exports are projected at 750,000 tonnes, lower than in recent years, but Uruguay is diversifying markets beyond Brazil, with negotiations underway to access China and Mexico.

Soybeans remain Uruguay’s leading summer crop, with a projected harvest of 3.1 million tonnes, slightly down from the record 3.2 million tonnes in 2024–2025 but 4% higher than earlier years. A modest reduction in soybean acreage reflects a shift to corn, though strong export demand, particularly from China (80% of exports), sustains its dominance. Canola, grown in winter, is seeing rapid growth due to demand for biofuels and food, with exports to France, Belgium, Germany, and the UK. In 2025–2026, canola planting is set to expand significantly after strong yields and prices last season.

Agriculture accounts for 6–7% of Uruguay’s GDP, rising to 14–16% with related industries, and employs 8% of the workforce as of 2023. Over 80% of Uruguay’s exports, reaching more than 160 countries, are agricultural products, including corn, wheat, soybeans, barley, and rice. Despite a 2023 export decline due to drought and lower prices, Uruguay, with a population of 3.5 million, can feed nearly 30 million people globally, according to Uruguay XXI. The shift toward canola and corn underscores the country’s adaptability to market and environmental challenges.

Tags: corn, Uruguay, crop forecast