Urea prices jump 18% since the start of the year

The global urea market has started the year with strong price gains, with Middle East spot quotations exceeding $480/t FOB — up 18% compared to early January levels.

During the latest Qatari tender for shipment in the second half of March, traders’ bids were submitted above $470/t FOB, with the final deal concluded at $480/t FOB. Just ten days earlier, prices stood at $460/t FOB.

Prices have also increased in North Africa, where spot levels surpassed $500/t FOB for the first time since early November 2025. Egyptian granular urea rose by $52/t, or 12%, since mid-month.

In Europe, warehouse quotations are also moving higher: prices in La Pallice (France) are approaching €500/t FCA, while March shipments from North Africa exceeded $500/t FOB — the first time since the first half of November last year.

According to analysts, prices are reacting to tight supply. China is largely absent from the global market due to export quotas, Indonesia has shipped only one export cargo so far, and production in Trinidad remains offline. Seasonal gas reallocations in Iran are removing up to 450,000 tons per month from the market. Additional pressure comes from supply disruptions in Venezuela and the halt of one Black Sea supplier in February. January and February cargo sales from Nigeria and Algeria have also reduced availability for European buyers.

Demand, meanwhile, remains active. Further US purchases for March shipment are expected, along with potential new Indian tenders, supporting prices. Trading companies are actively building positions and covering previous short sales, adding upward pressure to quotations. For European importers, the CBAM policy has become an additional factor, with many temporarily absorbing related pricing risks.

“Current FOB benchmarks are only slightly below the peak levels seen in June–August 2025. Price dynamics in the coming months will largely depend on Indian and US purchasing volumes, as well as on a possible resumption of Chinese exports closer to the second quarter,” experts said.

Tags: fertilizers