Unchanged forecasts of the canola crop in Canada and Australia restrain the growth of stock prices

According to the forecast of Statistics Canada (StatCan), in 2024/25 MY canola production in the country will increase by 1.6% compared to the previous season from 19.192 to 19.5 mln tonnes, which is 2.6% lower than the USDA forecast, but generally corresponds to the average estimate of analysts.

According to the report, the November canola futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange yesterday fell 0.5% to 596 CAD/t or 441,76 $/t (+3.3% for the week, -6.5% for the month).

Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) expects that in 2024/25 MY the country will harvest 5.435 million tons of canola from 3.2 million hectares, while according to the official forecast of ABARES the harvest will amount to 5.385 million tons, and the area – 3.1 million hectares. The AOF considers the weather of the current season quite atypical, as it was dry in the regions accustomed to beneficial precipitation, and in the usually arid areas there were heavy rains.

November futures for rapeseed on the stock exchange in Paris yesterday also fell by 0.5% to 461,25 €/t or 513,55 $/t (+0.9% for the week, -4.1% for the month). Processors are in no hurry to raise prices, as they have the necessary stocks of raw materials and waiting for data on the harvest in the EU.

In Ukraine, the purchase price of rapeseed this week increased by another 200-300 UAH/t to 22500-22800 UAH/t or 480-490 $/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea, which has increased sales by producers.

Traders are not yet responding to the unsatisfactory weather conditions for sowing of winter rapeseed in Ukraine. If there is no precipitation in the next 2 weeks, farmers will not have time to sow rapeseed in the optimal time (from August 5 to September 5). Due to climate change, in recent years, the timing of rapeseed sowing in Ukraine has shifted from August to September, but in case of cold autumn, the crops may not grow to the size required for normal wintering.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of August 26, only 232.5 thou hectares were planted with winter rapeseed in Ukraine. Early crops were severely affected by the lack of precipitation in August, and some fields had no germination at all.

As a reminder, in 2023, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine planted 1.254 mln ha of winter rapeseed.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, prices, rapeseed