Ukrainian wheat changes export targets due to EU barriers

In the transition period between the old and new harvests, the wheat market in Ukraine shows mixed signals, but the long-term prospects are positive. This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the VAR.

“The market is actually off-season. The old harvest has almost been sold off — there is demand for it, but not that significant. The market is starting to subside a little. Last week, a short-term drop in prices was recorded, but by the end of the week the market returned to an upward trend,” analysts report. Against the background of a reduction in offers on the world market and growing weather risks in the main producing countries, in particular, in Russia and the USA, the new Ukrainian harvest has every chance of being competitive.

“Weather risks are significant. It is likely that wheat will be expensive in the new season. Already in the fall we can reach the level of $230–240 per ton of the third class, and in the second half of the season — up to $260,” experts predict. At the same time, the European market remains problematic for the sale of Ukrainian wheat.

“From June 6, Ukraine returns to the pre-war model of trade with the EU — with duties and quotas, which will significantly limit exports to Europe. Therefore, traders are already actively looking towards Asia: the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh. Ukrainian wheat is in high demand in these countries,” the PUSK notes.

According to experts, farmers should not rush into forward contracts, since the supply remains low, and there is a potential for the price to increase by $2–3 per week.

Tags: Ukraine, export, grain, Indonesia, EU, wheat, Bangladesh, restrictions