Ukrainian soybeans win the season: prices hold, and European demand grows

Ukraine continues to increase its position in the world soybean market despite external risks and fluctuations.

This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

As of the beginning of April, almost 93 thousand tons of soybeans have already been exported from Ukraine. In addition, active processing on the domestic market and a high level of shipments have made it possible to effectively unload this year’s record harvest.

“As of April 1, approximately 2 million tons of soybeans remained in Ukraine – slightly more than last year, when there were about 1.7-1.8 million tons. But thanks to high processing and exports, we are confidently reducing the balance. Already in May-June we can reach similar indicators to the last season. Thus, the market was able to absorb a record volume of soybeans. This is a good signal for farmers and exporters,” PUSK noted.

The global soybean market has seen a certain decline in importer activity, partly due to expectations of news about possible tariffs between the US and the EU. However, prices remain stable: at deep-water ports — $385–390 per ton. Processors in Ukraine have become more active, and conditional soybean prices are holding at UAH 17,500–17,800/t. Demand for soybean oil from Europe is also supporting the market.

“European buyers have been actively contracting Ukrainian soybean oil in recent weeks. Demand from processors remains high, and therefore purchase prices for soybeans are stable at an attractive level. This helps maintain production margins. Ukrainian soybeans continue to be competitive, even against the backdrop of declining stock market prices,” analysts report.

Global trends may play in Ukraine’s favor. In the USA, a decrease in corn area by 5–6% is forecast, while soybean area may increase by a similar amount. South America — Brazil and Argentina — plans to maintain or even increase production volumes. However, American soybean is currently losing competitiveness against the backdrop of trade tensions between the USA and the EU.

“If the situation with tariffs between the USA and the EU worsens, a redistribution of European demand in favor of Ukrainian soybean is quite likely. Europe is already increasing purchases from Ukraine, and in the coming months this trend can only intensify. The world market generally looks stable, with no prerequisites for sharp collapses. Therefore, we can expect prices to remain stable and the potential expansion of the presence of Ukrainian soybeans on the European market,” the PUSK predicts.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean