Ukrainian soybeans are regaining their position on the world market despite the reduction of imports by China

As of January 6, 2025, Ukraine’s soybean exports reached 460 thsd tonnes, which indicates a stable supply dynamics. Despite the seasonal decline in global market activity due to the holiday season, Ukrainian exporters are maintaining their positions. However, the global soybean market is facing a number of fundamental challenges, including a high global harvest and economic problems in China, one of the key importers. This was reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR

“Despite the difficult economic situation in China, which may reduce soybean imports to 95-100 mln tons, the market is stable. Since August last year, prices on the exchange have remained stable, and even short-term drops are quickly compensated for. This indicates that the exchange market is still ignoring global challenges. Of course, high global stocks add to the uncertainty, but the trend toward price recovery continues. Ukrainian soybean exporters can use this period to strengthen their positions,” the PUSK believes.

Historically, January, February and March show the upward trend in soybean prices, which is confirmed by the seasonal model. PUSK experts predict a price increase by the end of January: “The seasonal dynamics of the soybean market shows traditional growth in the first months of the year, and the current situation confirms this trend. We are already seeing a price increase: in the domestic market, they have risen by 200-300 UAH/t, and in foreign currency terms, by $3-5 per ton. We can predict that notional prices on a CPT basis will reach $400-410 per tonne in January, and even exceed this level in February-March. This is a favorable period for farmers planning to sell their products.”

Tags: Ukraine, export, soybean