Ukrainian soybean export prices fall under pressure from new crop from South America

Export demand prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine are falling as supplies of cheaper and higher-quality soybeans and soybean meal from South America and the USA increase on the world market, which reduces demand and prices from processors.

During the week, demand prices for GMO soybeans fell by $3-5/t to $385-387/t or UAH 18,000-18,100/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and the number of companies purchasing soybeans for export continues to decline.

Processors lowered prices by UAH 100-300/t to UAH 17,000-17,800/t with delivery to the factory, especially given the increase in offers from farmers.

Prices for non-GMO soybeans remain stable at $425-435/t or UAH 19,800-20,100/t with delivery to ports and UAH 19,000-19,200/t with delivery to the factory due to low stocks of such soybeans at producers.

ANEC increased its forecast for soybean exports from Brazil in May (compared to the previous estimate) by 0.25 million tons to 14.52 million tons, although shipments to China are slowing.

According to the China Customs Administration, in April, soybean imports decreased compared to last year from 8.6 to 6.08 million tons, in particular from Brazil – by 22.2% to 4.6 million tons and from the USA – by 43.7% to 1.38 million tons.

July soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.9% to $386.9/t (+1% month-on-month) on the back of favorable planting weather in the US, although they were supported by data on increased processing.

According to the US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), the country’s soybean processing volume in April increased by 14% compared to April 2024 to a record 5.5 million tons for this month, and in total for the season reached a record 44.7 million tons (42.2 million tons for the same period in MY 2023/24 and 40.6 million tons on average over 5 years).

This led to an increase in soybean oil stocks to a 10-month high of 950,000 tons, as its export rate decreased due to a higher price than South American oil.

According to NASS USDA, as of May 18, 66% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in the US (50% last year and 53% on average over 5 years).

Floods in Argentina are delaying the soybean harvest, pushing up prices for soybeans and soybean oil. But forecasted improved weather will speed up the harvest and increase supply, putting further pressure on prices in June.

Tags: prices, soybean