Ukrainian rapeseed is becoming a scarce crop for exporters

A scarce market for new crop rapeseed is forming in Ukraine. Ukrainian traders and processors are stepping up purchases against the backdrop of limited supply and stable demand from Europe.

This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

The current situation on the rapeseed market is tense, despite the holiday lull on European exchanges. Due to the weekend on Euronext last week, trading did not show activity, and prices remained in a narrow range. However, analysts are already observing signs of potential growth.

“New crop rapeseed prices are currently fluctuating within the local level of 475–480 €/t. If this price threshold is overcome, further growth in quotations to 500–510 €/t is possible,” analysts note.

The situation on the Ukrainian market is more dynamic. Conditional prices for delivery to ports in July-August are kept within $510–515/t excluding VAT. Processors are willing to pay more — at the level of $535–545/t including VAT, and in some places even offers of $550–560/t are heard.

“Despite limited activity on European exchanges, the Ukrainian market is demonstrating price growth. The main factor is the imbalance between the volumes of already concluded export contracts and actual purchases: 1.7–1.8 million tons of products have been sold, while about 1.3 million tons have been purchased. Thus, the market for the new harvest remains in deficit, and traders need to cover at least another 100–500 thousand tons,” the PUSK comments.

This deficit keeps prices at a high level and is likely to contribute to their further growth. Weather risks, in particular frosts, also play a role – farmers are in no hurry to conclude forward contracts.

The forecasted seasonal price for July-September is $540-560/t on a CPT-port basis.

“There will be few forwards – farmers are afraid of risks. The main trade will probably be on the spot,” experts conclude.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed