Ukrainian corn prices could reach $230/t in October

Ukrainian corn exports in September almost did not grow, and the main activity on the market is expected in October-December. This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the VAR.

“The low activity in September is explained by several factors at once. First, harvesting began only in the south, where corn is traditionally scarce. The main areas are located in the center and north of the country, and mass harvesting there will start approximately on October 10-15. Second, even “dry” corn in the north and center has a moisture content of 16-18%, which requires processing before shipment to ports. This means that the grain will physically be able to reach the terminals no earlier than the second half of October,” analysts explain.

The first batches harvested in the south cannot significantly affect the market, so the supply remains limited. Meanwhile, traders have already contracted significant volumes for export, but have not had time to buy grain from producers. This creates the prerequisites for price increases.

“The Ukrainian market is already seeing an increase in quotations. As of the end of September, conditional prices are in the range of $200–207/t on a CPT-port basis. For quick delivery in October–November, you can get up to $209/t. If the harvest rate is low and the supply is limited, prices may increase to $210–212/t in the coming weeks and even to $230/t by the end of October,” the PUSK forecats.

The situation may change in November–December. The US is preparing for a record corn harvest, which will increase global supply and affect world prices. The main destinations for Ukrainian grain exports will remain the EU, Turkey, and Egypt, but competition in these markets will increase.

“October could be a month of profitable spot deals, while the end of the year is likely to bring a price correction influenced by global supply,” the analysts summarize.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, prices