Ukrainian corn destined for the Middle East was reoriented to other markets

The physical corn market of Ukraine is showing a rather restrained reaction to external factors caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

This is reported by analysts of Spike Brokers.

Export prices CPT Odesa remain at around $213. According to the SPIKE Spot Commodity Index, corn prices on the CPT Odesa basis rose to $213 (+$3 t/t).

The limited reaction of the physical market is explained by the fact that a significant part of the commodity export flows, which were previously directed to the Middle East market, were promptly reoriented to alternative directions. This made it possible to satisfy the current demand of the main world importers without a sharp increase in prices.

The export rate of Ukrainian corn in March remains lower compared to February, which corresponds to typical seasonal dynamics.

As of March 12, shipments totaled about 1.13 million tons, with Turkey, Italy, Egypt, Spain, and Libya remaining key buyers. The current export dynamics increase the likelihood of larger carryover balances at the end of the marketing year.

At the same time, short-term support factors are starting to form in the domestic market. Restrained supply from farmers, combined with speculative interest from traders who are gradually building up long positions in anticipation of a longer-term impact of geopolitical risks, have already started to support domestic prices.ф

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export