Ukraine’s wheat market will maintain an upward trend until mid-March

As of February 16, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to about 190 thousand tons. At the same time, additional demand is being formed on the world market due to the reduction in supplies from the Black Sea region, which supports price dynamics. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

“Due to logistical restrictions in the Black Sea region, the export volumes of one of Ukraine’s key competitors may decrease by almost half. Accordingly, global importers will have to repurchase about 1–1.5 million tons of wheat from other suppliers who are already ready to buy in Ukraine, Romania and France,” analysts note.

At the same time, there is a certain imbalance between demand and supply on the domestic market.

“Traders are actively contracting wheat, while supply from producers remains limited. This has been supporting a gradual increase in prices for several weeks in a row, and wheat is adding $1–2/t every week. An additional factor of influence remains weather risks and possible losses of winter crops due to frost, which will also support prices,” experts believe.

Currently, conditional prices for food wheat (11.5%) on a CPT-port basis are in the range of $215–220/t. Further strengthening to $220–225/t is forecasted for early March.

“The wheat market will maintain an upward trend until at least mid-March. Further price movements will be determined by the condition of winter crops and the development of the global market,” the PUSK notes.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat