Ukraine’s wheat exports slow, March volumes may reach only 600 thsd tons

Ukraine’s wheat shipments remain below potential export capacity. Between March 1 and 12, exports totaled about 232.9 thousand tons, according to Spike Brokers.

Brokers note that at the current pace of deliveries, March exports may amount to only about 600 thousand tons, which increases the likelihood of larger carryover stocks of wheat in the Black Sea region at the end of the season.

The main buyers of Ukrainian wheat in March are Algeria (93 thousand tons), Egypt (69 thousand tons) and Israel (31 thousand tons), which confirms that the main demand from North Africa and the Middle East remains.

At the same time, wheat quotes on the Euronext exchange remained in the range of €203–212/ton during the week. At the same time, the market movement was largely shaped by the activity of financial funds, which continue to increase long positions. Prices are supported by geopolitical risks and rising energy prices, which increase production costs and form a premium on grain markets.

“On the physical market of the Black Sea, quotes also show moderate growth. Russian wheat 12.5% ​​is offered at around $239–240/t FOB, while Ukrainian 11.5% is offered at $237–238/t FOB. At the same time, buyer activity remains limited: importers are trying to postpone purchases due to rising freight rates and general uncertainty in energy markets,” Spike Brokers adds.

In Ukraine, export prices for wheat increased slightly over the week. On the basis of CPT Odesa, wheat rose by 11.5% from $218/t to $219/t, and feed wheat rose from $210/t to $214/t. The market is supported by a limited supply of grain.

Tags: Ukraine, export, wheat