Ukraine's wheat export prices fall amid low new crop wheat prices at international tenders

In Ukraine and Russia, rainy weather will continue for another 7-8 days, which will improve the condition of winter wheat crops, so analysts have already begun to raise harvest forecasts for both countries and the Black Sea region as a whole, which has increased pressure on the prices of the new crop. European wheat continues to fall in price under the pressure of significant stocks and forecasts of a good future harvest.

In Ukraine, during the week, export purchase prices for food wheat decreased by another $2–4/t to $226–230/t (or UAH 10,700–10,900/t ), and for feed wheat – by $4–5/t to $210–215/t (or UAH 10,000–10,100/t ) with delivery to Black Sea ports. Many traders have stopped purchasing altogether in anticipation of the start of contracting for the new harvest, the prices for which are only $215–219/t for food wheat and $205–207/t for feed wheat.

In the MY 2024/25, Ukraine exported 14.5 million tons of wheat, which is 16.3% lower than last year’s pace (16.86 million tons), so it is unlikely to be able to reach the USDA’s forecast of 16 million tons by the end of the season.

The results of importers’ tenders for the purchase of wheat last week were impressive with a drop in prices of $20-25/t compared to prices at the beginning of the year, so it is not worth expecting a price increase in the next 1-2 months.

On May 14, the state-owned Algerian company OAIS purchased 600-700 thousand tons of soft wheat of any origin at a tender with delivery on July 1-15 and 16-31 at a price of $244.5/ton C&F.

And the State Food Security Agency of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) purchased 621 thousand tons of wheat with a protein content of 12.5% from the EU, North and South America, Australia and the Black Sea region at a tender for delivery from August to October at an average price of $251.9/ton C&F, while 920 thousand tons of wheat were purchased at a price of $276.37/ton C&F in the tender on February 17.

July wheat futures in the US rose yesterday:

• by 0.8% to $194.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.7% per week),
• by 1.2% to $192/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.8%),
• by 2.1% to $215.1/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.2%).

Meanwhile, September wheat futures on the Euronext Paris exchange fell 1% yesterday to €202.25/t or $227.4/t (-1.1%).

Prices in the US were supported by data on increased exports and a slight deterioration in the condition of winter crops.

Wheat exports from the US during May 9-15 increased by 4.6% compared to the previous week to 423.8 thousand tons, and in total for the season reached 20.7 million tons, which is 15.7% higher than last year’s pace, but with 2 weeks remaining before the end of the season, it is unlikely to reach the USDA’s projected 22.3 million tons.

During the week, the number of winter wheat crops in the US in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 52% (49% last year). At the same time, 82% of the planned area has already been sown with spring wheat (65% on average over 5 years).

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat