Ukraine will have no less wheat for export than last season

Favorable weather conditions will allow farmers to harvest and export wheat in the 2023/2024 marketing year at least as much as last season, despite a 20% reduction in the area under crops due to the occupation of a number of regions.

“The carry-over stocks of crops in 2023 are about five times lower than in the 2022 season, when the country had 27 million tons of agricultural products as of mid-summer. On average, since the grain corridor started working normally, agriculture has been bringing in about $2 billion a month to the state budget,” said Mykola Solsky, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, during a telethon.

Assessing the prospects for the 2023 harvest, the Minister noted that this season, 20% less production areas were allocated for crops than in pre-war 2021 due to the areas in Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and the south of the country, which are currently under occupation. Solsky also clarified that during the fall 2022 sowing campaign, winter crops were sown 25% less than in 2021.

“Thanks to the weather, we got a significantly higher yield on these areas. It was not a harsh winter, there were no sharp temperature drops, and there was enough humidity, which led to the increase in yield. It was difficult for farmers to save on seeds, herbicides, and fertilizers. But one factor compensated for the other,” explained Solsky.

Speaking about this season’s spring crop harvest, the Minister emphasized that a combination of natural and climatic factors, including a wet summer and average temperatures, affected the quality of grain, which will be worse than last season.

“We have less milling wheat and more feed wheat. But this is a standard situation for Ukraine, when the season depends primarily on weather conditions,” said the head of the agriculture ministry.

According to him, the tonnage of wheat for export to Ukraine in 2023/2024 MY will be not less than last season.

Assessing the readiness of the agrarian business for the autumn-winter period, Solsky reminded that since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been implementing many donor programs, some of which were implemented through the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Therefore, the supply of generators, in particular, is many times higher than at the beginning of winter last year.

According to the Minister, gas will be the main challenge for business in the autumn and winter period. A positive factor was its low cost in MY 2022/2023, which was several times lower than before the war. However, over the past few weeks, the price has risen, which will affect the operation of elevators, Solsky explained. However, this factor, in his opinion, will also depend on the weather and the skill of entrepreneurs.

“When we talk about grains, the need for gas (for the agricultural sector – ed.) will depend on the conditions under which corn will be harvested. Whether it will be a wet autumn or not,” the Minister said and added that many farmers are now actively advancing and buying gas.

He stated that there are no gas subsidies for business, as the priority is to provide gas to the population. However, the situation will become clearer in late October and early November, and the agricultural market is preparing for it.

Tags: export, wheat, Ukraine