Ukraine. Wheat prices are expected to peak by the end of winter

Trends in exports and prices of Ukrainian wheat continue to attract considerable interest among market participants and analysts. January and February are traditionally the peak months for grain trading, when prices often reach their highest levels. Amid global balance sheet changes, such as the adjustment of export quotas in Russia, Ukraine continues to play an important role in the global grain market. This was reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

Despite some restraint of importers, Ukrainian traders demonstrate a stable pace of exports. “As of January 13, Ukraine exported almost 400 thousand tons of wheat, and it is expected that by the end of February this figure may reach 1 million tons. Against the backdrop of global restrictions and quotas affecting supply, we see a stable export potential,” the PUSK said.

One of the key factors affecting the price dynamics is the restriction of Russian wheat exports. According to analysts, traders are gradually increasing supply. The notional cost of wheat in Ukrainian ports ranges from $220-$225 per ton. “January and February is the period when wheat prices traditionally peak. We expect the conditional export price for the third class to reach $230 per ton,” the experts added. The analysts also emphasized the role of local factors in supporting prices.

According to the memorandum signed between the Ukrainian Grain Association and the Ministry of Agriculture, the volume of wheat exports will not exceed 16.2 million tons. This helps to avoid sharp changes in the domestic market. “Competition between millers and exporters continues to stimulate the local market. This creates conditions for stable price growth, especially in winter. In the domestic market, the conditional prices for 2-3 grade wheat are in the range of 9500-10300 UAH/t, depending on the volume of the batches. Now it is important to follow the global trends and quotas to optimally distribute export volumes,” the PUSK said.

The next two months may be the best time to sell wheat. “The market is likely to continue to “pull up” until the end of winter. However, we should be prepared for potential fluctuations in March-April, when information about the new harvest will start coming in,” the analysts summarize.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat