Ukraine. Untypical increase of wheat price in September

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

UKRAINE. WINTER WHEAT PLANTING PROGRESS. As of September 23, 944.5 K ha were sown, or 20% of the winter wheat area forecast. For 7 days, the sown area increased by 11%, but this pace is still not high enough to sow the target of 5187 K ha. According to the target, the winter wheat area in 2024 will be 217 K ha less than in 2023 (-4%). At the same time, some large agriholdings are increasing their winter wheat areas. As it became known, this year MHP plans to expand its winter wheat areas by 23% y/y. The best time for planting ends in mid to late October, depending on the location of the fields, leaving some time for farmers to plant winter wheat.

WHEAT QUALITY AND EXPORT RATES. Wheat quality is better than expected before. Milling wheat to feed wheat ratio in terms of protein content is about 50/50, which is no worse than in 2023/24 MY.

The pace of wheat exports in the first months of the 2024/25 season (July-September) is ahead of the previous two years, mainly due to the stable operation of the sea corridor. However, August and September exports still lag behind the average pace of the last 5 years, which is explained by decreased carryover and lower export potential.

Top wheat importers, July-Sept. 2024/25 

• Spain
• Indonesia
• Vietnam
• Egypt
• Thailand

In comparison with the previous 2023/24 season, Ukrainian wheat exports to Southeast Asian countries increased, mainly due to stable operation of Greater Odesa deep-water ports. However, Spain remains the undisputed leader in imports of Ukrainian wheat. This country wheat imports will decline in 2024/25 MY, but will still remain the largest importer of Ukrainian origin.

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Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, export, grain, prices, wheat