Ukraine. Sunflower season past – season ahead

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

RESULTS OF THE 2023/24 SEASON AND CARRY-OVER STOCKS

• SFS harvest – (+23% compared to 2022 due to area recovery and record yields);
• Area – (+5.5% y/y);
• Yield – (+16% y/y).

In the 2023/24 season, 98% of SFS harvest was crushed domestically due sharp drop of SFS exports. The oilseed industry performance recovered to pre-war levels.

The 2023/24 SFS exports dropped to 309,3 K mt vs. 1861,1 K mt in 2022/23 season.

The structure of SFS exports remains fairly stable. The main markets are the EU countries and Turkey.

The 2023/24 SFO exports was the highest in the last four seasons – 6.2 M mt (+10% by 2022/23 MY).

Among the main destinations: strengthened position of the EU countries at the expense of other main importers like Turkey, India and China.

The SFM export is the highest in the last four seasons – 4.6 M mt (+16% by 2022/23 MY). EU was the main destination market, for the first time since 2018/19 MY, displacing China.

OUTLOOK FOR THE 2024/25 SEASON.

The shortage of SFS supply is already being felt at the beginning of the season. Farmers have adopted the strategy of holding back sales, which is working, and the domestic SFS price is rising given the large volume of SFO contracted for export.

Crushers say they are losing margins. Expensive SFS will continue to keep the price of SFO high relative to competing oils.

SFS supply will be particularly scarce in the second half of the season (March – August 2025).

Further development of the oilseed and vegoil sector in the Black Sea and Danube region will be discussed at the 10^th International Conference BLACK SEA OIL TRADE on October 15^th in Bucharest.

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Tags: sunseed, crop forecast, Ukraine, China, sunflower oil, Turkey, export, EU, prices, India