Ukraine. Significant part of agricultural holdings has already sold about 50-75% of the expected corn harvest

Export shipments of corn are gradually increasing, but remain at a record low – 485 thousand tons compared to 1.3 million tons for the same period last year.

This is reported by analysts at Spike Brokers.

It is expected that reaching the 10 million tons mark next week will activate grain shipments in export directions.

A significant part of agricultural holdings has already sold, if not 90%, then approximately 50-75% of the expected corn harvest with deliveries for November-January. Under such conditions, the saturation of export channels with shipments is predicted from the beginning of November.

In ports, prices on the spot market are held with a premium for deliveries until 10.11.25, where buyers are willing to pay up to $207. At the same time, due to the unpredictability of logistics, this premium is mainly theoretical.

Contracts for delivery in November-December are trading at $203-204 towards seaports. On the western border, European buyers expect November shipments.

High costs and a far from ideal situation with rail logistics force producers to use their own road transport to deliver grain to the western border and seaports.

The spot price index for corn for delivery within 30 days remained unchanged compared to Friday last week – $204. European buyers on the FCA Chop basis are announcing prices of €182-183 for November and €180 for December.

The activation of the supply of European corn, especially from France and Eastern European countries, creates additional pressure on prices within Europe for the coming months. Most buyers/traders are looking for opportunities to sell and do not want to buy. It is expected that from December onwards, prices towards Europe may drop to the parity level of $190-195 CPT seaports, western border in the Eurotrain – to €170-175.

Tags: Ukraine, corn