Ukraine. Pre-Christmas demand for soybeans is driving up prices: should producers wait?

The Ukrainian soybean market is showing outstanding results: export volumes have reached 445 thousand tons, which creates the preconditions for a new record. This was reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

However, the Ukrainian market is dependent on global trends, such as price fluctuations for U.S. and Brazilian soybeans. “Ukrainian soybeans are usually sold at a discount compared to American soybeans, which is about $5-7 per ton. However, now the price of US soybeans is almost equal to the Ukrainian one, which is a favorable signal for domestic exporters. Negative trends in the physical markets, in particular the fall in the price of soybeans in Chicago, have not yet affected our sales volumes,” analysts say.

Seasonal trends indicate a possible increase in soybean prices in December-March. This is traditionally an active period for trade. Analysts predict a gradual increase in the price of soybeans to $420-440 per ton, which is $20-30 more than the current figures.

“December is always active for the market due to the preparation for the Christmas holidays. Processing companies will increase purchases of soybeans, as most of them have covered their needs only for the first half of December. This creates high demand, which, in turn, will drive up prices. We can recommend producers who have the opportunity to postpone sales until February-March to maximize the benefits,” analysts said.

On the domestic market, prices for soybean meal remain low, which limits the ability of processors to set high purchase prices. Currently, they buy soybeans for 17 300-17 500 UAH/t. However, the correlation between the price of soybeans and meal gives us hope that the situation on the Ukrainian market will level off in the coming months.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean