Ukraine peas 2025/26: Record crop, weak demand and market pressure

UkrAgroConsult

The 2025/26 season has become a paradox for Ukraine’s pea market. A record crop of 653 K mt (+40% y/y), the largest in seven years, has coincided with unexpectedly weak export performance, turning volume growth into a commercial challenge.

In July–December 2025, Ukraine exported only 160 K mt of peas (–34% y/y), which represents roughly one-third of the total export potential for the season. Historically, Ukraine sold 60–70% of its peas by mid-season. As a result, excess supply has accumulated on the domestic market, increasing downward pressure on prices.

The article explains why key demand drivers failed simultaneously. India effectively closed its market with a 30% import levy, Turkey sharply reduced purchases in favor of cheaper russian origin, while China has not absorbed Ukrainian volumes due to stronger competition. Against this backdrop, export prices softened to $260–270/mt CPT Odesa, the lowest levels of 2025.

What This Article Covers

• Why a record pea crop failed to translate into strong exports
• Loss of India and Turkey as key demand drivers
• China market: expectations versus competitive reality
• Oversupply and price pressure in 2025/26
• Implications for Ukraine’s pea area in 2026/27

What the Charts Show

• Crop, area and yield dynamics highlighting rapid production growth
• Monthly export flows showing an unusually slow pace in the first half of the season

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Tags: India, supply and demand balance, pea, Ukraine, China, Turkey, export