Ukraine offers new-crop grain without the usual discount to old-crop prices

An unusual pricing trend is emerging in Ukraine’s grain market, as new-crop grains are trading nearly at the same level – and in the case of corn, even above – old-crop prices, despite expectations of strong production and ample stocks. This situation is influenced by multiple factors, including war-related risks and logistics costs.

Offers for Ukrainian 11.5% milling wheat for August shipment from Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk ports are around $234 per tonne FOB, compared with $236 per tonne for April–May loading, a gap of only $2. For feed wheat, new-crop August offers are $226–228 per tonne FOB, while old-crop April shipments are $230 per tonne. A year earlier, the gap between old and new crop wheat was around $12–13 per tonne.

A similar pattern is seen in corn, where old-crop offers for April–May were $226–227 per tonne FOB, while new-crop November offers are even higher at about $230 per tonne. On the domestic market, new-crop corn for November–December 2026 is bidding $209–210 per tonne DAP, with trades reported around $212 per tonne, leaving a very narrow spread between spot and forward deliveries.

New-crop barley is not yet actively offered on the market, as traders are cautious due to last year’s experience with limited coverage and price increases throughout the marketing year. Despite this, Ukrainian grain prices remain relatively attractive compared with the EU Black Sea region and Euronext market levels.

Market experts explain this dynamic as being driven by expectations for premiums against futures. The new crop is supported by strong demand and the ability to hedge through international contracts, meaning participants are not offering significant discounts for new-crop grain. As a result, the price structure between old and new crops is almost flat.

High fuel prices and diesel shortages in Ukraine, caused by the destruction of domestic refining capacity, also directly impact harvest and logistics costs. In typical pre-war years, new-crop corn would usually trade at a noticeable discount to the old crop due to harvest pressure on forward prices, but this pattern is not currently observed.

Overall, both old and new crop markets are maintaining an almost flat structure: FOB new-crop corn prices are supported by ongoing war risks, while DAP prices are underpinned by logistics costs and fuel uncertainty. This creates complex conditions for traders and defines the new dynamics of Ukraine’s grain market.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, barley, prices, wheat