Ukraine. New Grain Corridor and outlook for October agricultural exports

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Freight Market Analyst

In the period 1-15 October, Ukraine exported 1.89 M mt of agricultural products, 4% more than in the period 1-15 September. UkrAgroConsult expects total exports for October to be in the range of 3.7-3.9 M mt.

For the second month in a row, exports through alternative export channels have been at the same level. This means that the channels are at their maximum capacity and exports through the channels have stabilized.

The new grain corridor, which is becoming more active each week, can be as the most promising supply chain.

In 1-15 October, the share of land transport in total exports was 31%, in line with the average of recent months. Exports by land continue to play an important role in promoting Ukraine’s export potential.

Exports by road transport 

Truck/vehicle exports continue to level off compared to previous months. Demand for exports by truck/vehicle has increased in recent months, but is still far from last season’s record. The share of soybeans in road exports is leading, while deliveries of rapeseed are declining.

Exports by rail

For the period, 1-15 October, 466 K mt were exported by rail, down 10% on 1-15 September. It seems that the surge in demand for rail is waning and the record exports by rail in November-December 2022 will remain unattainable. This trend is explained by the more or less stable operation of the new grain corridor, shippers have started to shift to exports via the deep-water ports of the Black Sea. The reduction in queues at the main border crossings confirms this trend.

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Tags: export, grain, Black Sea grain corridor, rail transportation, Ukraine