Ukraine increases soybean oil exports even under pressure from falling oil prices

In the first half of the MY 2024/25, Ukraine increased soybean oil exports compared to the same period of the previous season by 52% to a record 245.4 thousand tons. In particular, in February, this indicator increased compared to January by 38% to 59.1 thousand tons.

The main buyer of domestic soybean oil remains Poland, which increased purchases by almost 25%, although its share in total exports of this product from Ukraine decreased compared to the previous season from 73% to 61%.

After a long break, India significantly increased its purchases, with 25,000 tons of soybean oil delivered in the first half of MY 2024/25 (216,000 tons for the same period in MY 2023/24). In February, the volume of supplies to India increased by 77% compared to January to 11,000 tons, which was the highest figure since March 2020.

Currently, soybean oil is being offered at $920-950/t FCA – plant, and demand for it is gradually increasing. The strengthening of the euro against the dollar is boosting supplies to the EU, but traders are also selling oil to other countries.

Global soybean oil prices are falling under pressure from forecasts of a good harvest in South America and the US trade wars against Mexico, Canada and China.

May soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 12.3% to $916/t (-15% year-on-year) after China retaliated against the US with tariffs on American soybeans and soybean oil.

China’s 100% tariffs on Canadian canola and canola oil have caused rapeseed and canola oil prices to plummet, putting pressure on soybean oil prices.

May canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell 12.4% to CAD 574/t or $ 398/t since Monday (-16.7% for the month), which increased the pressure on quotes for rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the EU.

In Brazil, soybeans have been harvested on 60% of the area, and a total of 170 million tons of soybeans are planned to be harvested, compared to 154 million tons last year. In Argentina, sunflowers are being actively harvested, and soybean harvesting is beginning, the harvest of which is estimated at 49 million tons (50 million tons last year), so in the coming months the number of soybean and soybean oil offers on the market will increase sharply, and prices will decrease.

Tags: prices, Ukraine, export, soybean oil