Ukraine. Grain exports in the first half of the 2025/26 season. Is there room for price optimism?
UkrAgroConsult
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Wheat. July-Dec 2025 wheat exports will amount to 7.8 M mt (-20% y/y), it is just 47% of the 2025/26 export potential. Before the war, Ukraine exported 65–75% of seasonal exports in the first half of the season. After the slump in Dec-January, Ukraine exportable stocks will remain high with global market turning into buyers’ one. The 2025/26 wheat crop is high, competitive pressure will increase after entry of Australian and Argentine grain into the market.
In the 2025/26 season, Egypt, Indonesia and Algeria are the top buyers of Ukrainian wheat. The main difference from last year is the lack of significant purchases from the EU due to reduced annual quotas for Ukrainian wheat imports and higher harvests in the bloc. Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries traditionally switch to alternative suppliers in winter. Therefore, demand in the second half of 2025/26 season will mainly be provided by the Middle East and North Africa.
Barley. July-Dec exports were about 1.2 M mt (-37% y/y), or 46% of the export potential. The main buyer remains China, which the biggest purchase in the first months of the season. After, demand for barley was formed mainly from Turkey and the MENA countries. Barley price in Ukraine remains the highest among the entire feed group.
Corn. Ukraine is expected to export about 5M mt of corn in Sep-Dec, down 34% from last year’s pace and one of the weakest starts to the season in a decade. The start of the corn season was delayed by late harvests, and later complicated by logistical problems.
The exports rates currently depend mainly on demand from the EU and Turkey. The first shipment of Panamax cargoes to China somewhat supported the market, but it is too early to speak of a full-fledged return to demand. Until the 2024/25 season, China was the main importer of Ukrainian corn, with peak volumes in Nov-Jan.
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