Ukraine exported almost a quarter of the wheat agreed upon in the memorandum

On September 3, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine and grain market participants signed an annex to the Memorandum of Understanding, which agreed on the maximum export volumes of wheat and a mixture of wheat and rye (meslin) in the 2024/25 season under the UKTZED code 1001 at 16.2 million tons. The parties also agreed to monitor exports on a monthly basis and to adjust the export limits in January 2025, if necessary. This step will increase the pressure on the purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine, especially for milling wheat, as traders will make purchases taking into account the restriction of shipments in the second half of the season.

According to the official data, in July-August 2024, Ukraine exported 3.8 mln tonnes of wheat, which is 87% higher than last year’s exports and 23% of the maximum volume set by the Memorandum. Domestic flour millers asked the Ministry of Agrarian Policy to impose restrictions on milling wheat exports, as its share in the 2024 harvest is quite low.

In Ukraine, the export purchase prices for wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports remain at 9000-9300 UAH/t or 195-200 USD/t for food wheat and 8100-8300 UAH/t or 175-180 USD/t for feed wheat. At the same time, the volume of proposals increased slightly, as farmers are holding back sales of late crops amid declining yields.

Wheat quotations on world exchanges started the week with growth caused by forecasts of reduced harvest in the EU, as well as active exports from the United States.

According to the USDA, for August 23-29, wheat exports amounted to 578 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 5.736 million tons, which is 31.92% higher than last year.

Traders switch to trading in December futures, which were traded at 3-4% more expensive than September, and yesterday still increased:

2.8% to 208,24 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
by 1.9% to 211.7 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
by 1.1% to 223.1 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
by 1% to 219,25 €/t or 242,45 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for Russian wheat with a protein of 12.5% and delivery in September remain at a low level of 216 $/t FOB, which will increase its supply in September – October amid rising wheat prices in the EU and the United States. the Rise in wheat prices in Russia will support prices for Ukrainian wheat, as supplies from Romania and Bulgaria are also declining.

Tags: Ukraine, export, wheat